Picks Trying Not to Suck: Week 14
The law of averages caught up with Homerism, who took the old donut last week. The Skinny made up a little ground and remains within striking distance with two weeks left to go.
On to this week's picks...
Blatant Homerism--Week 14
(Last week: 0-5; Overall: 38-26-1)
TCU at Texas (+6.5)
I'd love to get another half point, but I see UT as a live dog here. The Longhorns have rounded into form down the stretch, covering three straight in November. TCU's prolific offense will face its stiffest challenge of the season against what has become one of the best defenses in the country in Austin.
The pick: The Horned Frogs' playoff dreams get stuffed on Thanksgiving.
Mississippi State at Ole Miss (+2.5)
MSU smells like the sucker bet of the season here, no?
The Rebels no longer have the look of one of the best teams in the country, especially after Arkansas pounded their asses, 30-0, last week. Peeking under the lid, however, reveals an even game with the Razorbacks from a statistics standpoint. The difference? A cavalcade of self-destructive Ole Miss turnovers.
Maybe Dr. Bo will go on another TO bender, but he has some atoning to do for his miscues in the Egg Bowl a year ago. I'd look for a solid showing from the Rebs' field general. The Rebs D is also well-suited to stopping the Bulldogs, who aren't accustomed to playing with the high stakes of a playoff bid on the line.
The pick: Speaking of dead playoff dreams, Mississippi St.'s end Saturday.
Arkansas at Missouri (+3)
Arkansas is supposedly the team no one in the country wants to play right now. OK, but who wants to play Missouri at the moment?
The Tigers have won five straight games, covering in four. That streak includes three outright wins as underdogs.
And from a motivation standpoint, who's playing for more right now? Bret Bielema has jettisoned the monkey from his back by getting his first win in the SEC and securing a bowl bid. Mizzou is playing for its second straight SEC East crown.
The pick: See you in Atlanta, Tigers. Bonus: If Mizzou wins, Georgia Tech becomes a live dog versus Georgia.
Minnesota at Wisconsin (-14)
This spread appears huge for a game that will decide the Big Ten West. Personally, I think the Golden Gophers are still a little counterfeit. They scored a surprising win last week at double-digit 'dogs at Nebraska, but the Cornhuskers sustained injuries to their best receiver, offensive lineman and running back during the course of the game.
Given that Minny star runner David Cobb is ailing, the Gophers should struggle to move the ball against the Badgers defense.
The pick: Wisconsin, 31-10.
Kansas (+27.5) at Kansas State
Bill Snyder is normally an autoplay for me versus the Jayhawks, but this time is different.
Throw last week's result out for Kansas. The weather was atrocious, and the Jayhawks played like they were ready to get back inside. (I can't say I blame them.)
Clint Bowen is auditioning to keep the KU job permanently, and before last week, the players were performing like they wanted him to get the gig. Don't be surprised if KU is in striking distance in the fourth quarter.
The pick: K-State by not enough.
The Skinny--Week 14
(Last week: 1-4; Overall: 31-33-1)
TCU at Texas (+6.5)
Kentucky (+12.5) at Louisville
Auburn (+9.5) at Alabama
Illinois (+8) at Northwestern
Michigan State at Penn State (+13)