Blatant Homerism 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: South Region
We kicked off this year’s March Madness preview with what appears to be the tournament’s toughest region, the West. Let’s now look at the South, where the story is dramatically different.
Blatant Homerism 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: South
The story: Running on empty
Auburn might have secured the top overall seed in this year’s tournament, but the Tigers started wobbling down the stretch of the regular season. No. 3 Iowa State fared even worse late, losing four of its final seven games with guard Keshon Gilbert in and out of the lineup. No. 5 Michigan’s Big Ten tournament championship apparently overshadowed a three-game losing streak to close the season in which the Wolverines lost each by an average of 15 points.
You get the picture: Some of the highest-seeded teams in the South are running on fumes.
The favorite: Auburn?
Perhaps Auburn’s lackluster close is weighing too heavily on perceptions of Bruce Pearl’s team? After all, oddsmakers seem to think the Tigers have the best chance of any team in the field to advance to the Final Four.
Those odds likely reflect a watered-down draw featuring a handful of overseeded teams, though. Auburn appears closer to the pack than the other top-seeded squads in this tournament.
Chaos agent: Michigan State’s outside shooting
“Tiny” Tom Izzo has put together a team with all the pieces to make a deep run the big dance – except when it comes to the three ball. The Spartans rank 327th nationally in three-point accuracy at 30.8%. MSU still went 27-6 on the year, so we’re not talking about a fatal flaw. In fact, if Sparty can raise its shooting percentage in a few more games, this team can win the whole thing.
Upset alert: No. 10 New Mexico over No. 7 Marquette
This wouldn’t qualify as a stunner, but the Lobos are catching 3.5 points in the first round against the Golden Eagles. UNM got slaughtered in round of 64 a year ago in a 21-point beatdown at the hands of Clemson, so Richard Pitino’s team should have some extra motivation this time around. Meanwhile, Marquette tailed off late in the season with a 4-7 record from February 1 on.
The sputtering Golden Eagles offense versus UNM’s salty D leaves Marquette vulnerable in this particular spot.
The pick: Michigan State over Texas A&M
The vibes around No. 1 Auburn definitely feel shaky. While the Tigers should make it to the second weekend, they’ll be begging to get knocked off. A&M looks like the team to do it – keep in mind the Aggies dominated Auburn on the glass in their 83-72 win earlier this year.
On the other side of the region, Iowa State seems like a team ready to call it a season. The Cyclones probably survive a scare from No. 14 Lipscomb on Friday, but that’s as far as they advance. Sparty should dispatch its first three opponents with ease.
In a strength-on-strength regional final, MSU can battle well enough on the glass against the Aggies, who struggle to score in general. Is this Izzo’s last rodeo?