Blatant Homerism 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: Sweet 16 and Elite Eight
I have never watched less of the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament than I did this year.
Based on the ratings, it looks like I was an outlier. I could offer plenty of reasons why that actually have nothing to do with the event itself. Not the least of which is that getting older tends to divert your attention in new directions. Watching college basketball all day just starts falling lower on your list of priorities. (Not to mention, consuming your body weight in nachos and cheap beer in the course of 12 hours becomes less “fun, but painful” and more “life-threatening.”)
Honestly, though, I don’t feel like I missed much. The results mainly played out as expected. All four days seemed to be short on drama.
The absence of big upsets isn’t the worst thing for hoops junkies. Fewer cinderellas sets the stage for more heavyweight fights later in the draw. To wit, no Sweet 16 game on Thursday and Friday has a double-digit point spread, a sign we should see plenty of tight contests.
Nevertheless, it does make me wonder if the tectonic shifts in the landscape of college sports have changed March Madness for good. Notably, all remaining teams in the bracket hail from what are considered power conferences. Purdue is the only one out of those 16 teams that doesn’t have at least one transfer player in the starting lineup. Most of those squads rely heavily on multiple transfers, and the vast majority of those players began their careers at mid-major schools. In the process, smaller schools are starting to resemble feeder teams for the bigger brands.
Of course, even though sports may be entertainment, they don’t have to entertain us. There are no writers to blame for lazy scripts when the games get tedious. But the possibility of a surprise is part of the allure, and the divide between the haves and the have-nots in college hoops has never felt bigger.
Here’s how I see things shaping up in each of the four regions in week two. Spoiler alert: Nothing shocking.
South
If you had any concerns about No. 1 Auburn’s form in the final weeks of the regular season, the Tigers apparently righted themselves. In particular, they turned on the jets in the second half of their game in round two against No. 9 Creighton, shifting a two-point deficit at halftime into a comfortable win 20 minutes later. No. 5 Michigan is playing well, but the Wolverines don’t have the athletes to hang with Bruce Pearl’s squad.
Meanwhile, no team in this region had a better start than No. 6 Ole Miss, as the Rebels blitzed No. 11 North Carolina and No. 3 Iowa State. Chris Beard’s team still gives up way too many offensive rebounds to outlast No. 2 Michigan State.
As for who wins, Auburn probably answered enough questions in the first two rounds to raise confidence in its ability to advance to the Final Four. I’m off the Spartans. Their poor three-point shooting will likely doom them in the regional final – if not sooner.
The pick: Auburn over Michigan State.
West
This region produced the closest thing to an upstart left in the tournament in No. 10 Arkansas – not much of an upstart when you’re one of the best-financed basketball programs in the country. The Razorbacks might not have made it out of the first round had Kansas forward KJ Adams not sustained an injury in their late comeback over the No. 7 Jayhawks. The Hogs then had the good fortune of catching the shakiest No. 2 seed in the field in St. John’s.
Arkansas’ run probably comes to an end on Thursday against No. 3 Texas Tech. The Red Raiders scored a low-key impressive win in their last game, overcoming their own horrendous shooting to beat a No. 10 Drake squad that knocked down nearly 50% of its three-point attempts. Grant McCasland and his staff arguably give Tech the best remaining coaching left in the field.
Tech will give No. 1 Florida a formidable foe in the Elite Eight – if the Gators get past Maryland, which might have the best starting five in the country. UF’s depth in the post will probably be too much for star forward JT Toppin and the rest of the Red Raiders to overcome in the end. However, Florida does feel like the top seed most likely to get bounced before the Final Four.
The pick: Florida over Texas Tech.
East
You can’t ask a top seed to play much better than No. 1 Duke did in the first week of the big dance. The Blue Devils’ 89-66 shellacking of No. 9 Baylor had an all-business feel to it. No one is beating Cooper Flagg and Co. if they keep this up.
After mucking around with No. 15 Robert Morris in the first round, No. 2 Alabama put together an impressive performance of its own in hammering No. 7 St. Mary’s by a final score of 80-66. No. 6 BYU will probably need to slow the game down in its Sweet 16 matchup versus the Crimson Tide, but that’s not what the Cougars do. Although Brigham Young has closed strong over the last month, this feels like a gnarly matchup for the boys from Provo.
In the regional final, Duke likely wins – the Blue Devils are simply better than Alabama. The Tide’s best hope to score an upset may be keeping the tempo at warp speed and hoping to win on shot volume. Sounds fun, but probably not effective.
The pick: Duke over Alabama.
Midwest
I realize Houston is a one seed, but it somehow feels as though the Cougars are flying under the radar. They defend as well as any team in the nation at this point. They also shoot the ball well from outside, and they’re relentless on the backboards when they do miss. A late charge by No. 8 Gonzaga in UH’s last game made the score appear closer than the contest was in reality. The Cougs basically pinned the Zags down from the start of the game and never let the Bulldogs breathe. Similarly, I don’t see No. 4 Purdue’s front line standing up to Kelvin Sampson’s brawlers down low.
The other side of the draw in this region is more interesting. I figured No. 3 Kentucky would bow out in the first weekend, but the Wildcats breezed by No. 14 Troy and No. 6 Illinois. That has given UK the opportunity to knock off No. 2 Tennessee for the third time this season. The difference in the first two encounters: The Volunteers connected on 14 of their 63 attempts from behind the arc (22%), while the Wildcats knocked down 24 of their 48 three balls (50%). I’d bet UT narrows that disparity this time around and gets a little revenge.
That sets up an all-time rock fight in the Elite Eight between squads that are carbon copies of each other. UH and UT play at a crawl, so the first team to break 60 might have the advantage. The Cougs are better shooters and can contend with the Vols on the glass, which makes me favor UH to move on to San Antonio.
The pick: Houston over Tennessee.