Blatant Homerism 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Region

After breaking down the West and South regions, let’s turn our attention to the Midwest. A familiar face to fans of the Oklahoma Sooners has his squad primed for a deep run in the big dance – if it can get past an annual NCAA tournament darling.

---

Blatant Homerism 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest

The story: The unlucky ones

The fact that the tournament selection committee slotted Gonzaga into an eight seed is going to prove unfortunate for one of two teams.

After top-seeded Houston plows through its first game, it will likely find the Zags waiting in the second round. Although the Bulldogs don’t have the right kind of wins and losses to warrant a better seed, they do have a team that is the caliber of a top 10 outfit. Will Mark Few’s squad end UH’s title hopes before the end of the first weekend, or will the Cougars send the Zags packing before the Sweet 16 for the first time in 11 years?

The favorite: Houston

The Cougs are facing some formidable contenders in this region, including aforementioned Gonzaga. They’re still the betting favorites after capturing the regular season and tournament crowns in the rugged Big 12. If post player J’Wan Roberts can’t recover from a sprained ankle, however, it will constitute a major blow to UH’s chances of securing coach Kelvin Sampson’s first national championship.

Boring: Purdue

Purdue clearly has fans – I’ve even met a few. Nothing about the Boilermakers gets your blood pumping, though. It’s just a very blah program from top to bottom.

High Point? Sounds more exciting. Here’s hoping the Panthers knock Purdue out right off the bat.

(And, no, we’re not that lucky.)

The real Cinderella: Troy

While everyone is fitting No. 12 McNeese State and No. 13 High Point for glass slippers, No. 14 Troy is flying under the fairy-tale radar. Out of the highly regarded teams in this tournament, the Trojans’ opponent in round one, No. 3 Kentucky, is the most erratic. Conversely, Troy’s strong close to the season suggests coach Scott Cross has his squad locked in.

Maybe the Trojans just put a scare into UK, but the vibes are pointing their way.

The pick: Houston over Tennessee

UH has a tricky road in front of it. Aside from Gonzaga in the second, No. 5 Clemson probably awaits in the Sweet 16. The Tigers are a well-rounded team with enough size on the interior to prevent the Cougs from playing bully ball. We’ll say UH advances to the Elite Eight by taking down a slightly lesser version of itself.

Speaking of which, No. 2 Tennessee mirrors UH in important ways. Rick Barnes has his Volunteers playing grinding, defense-first basketball that relies on efficiency over volume on the offensive end. The Vols have too much physicality for No. 7 UCLA, their likely opponent in the second round. After that, Barnes should have his team prepared for the schizophrenia of Kentucky or No. 6 Illinois.

Barnes will come down with another case of regional heartbreak, however, when UH ekes out a tight win in the Midwest final.

Support Through the Keyhole by joining our Patreon.