Five Questions: Oklahoma vs. South Carolina
Welcome to Five Questions, a weekly article featuring insights from experts on the Oklahoma Sooners’ upcoming opponents. For week eight, Payton Guthrie spoke with Derek Peterson, writer for Saturday Down South, about what to expect from the South Carolina Gamecocks against the Oklahoma Sooners after both teams suffered heartbreaking losses.
FIVE QUESTIONS: OKLAHOMA VS. South Carolina
Payton Guthrie - What is your expectation for the South Carolina football season and how has the first half of the season impacted that outlook? Will the team have a hangover after the narrow loss to Alabama?
Derek Peterson - I had South Carolina penciled in at 4-8 in the preseason. I thought Shane Beamer could have a quality squad, but the schedule just looked too gnarly. I've actually upgraded the Gamecocks a little since the year began.
They're better on defense than I thought they'd be — hello, Dylan Stewart — and worse on offense than I thought they'd be. I think a bowl game is realistically in play.
Which leads into the second part of your question. No, I don't expect a hangover because I don't think South Carolina was satisfied with just coming close. Beamer said it after the Kentucky win and he said it again after the Alabama result; the Gamecocks are better than they've been given credit for. The opener against ODU skewed perception a little. They had a bad game against Ole Miss, but a bad offense against an elite defense will yield a 27-3 result like that, so I'm not terribly put off by that.
South Carolina is going to have games like that against the best defenses in the SEC, so they could beat Oklahoma and follow that up with a bad showing against A&M. LaNorris Sellers is just too inconsistent.
Payton Guthrie - What will South Carolina try to do on offense against the OU defense?
Derek Peterson - It's not the best matchup, because South Carolina's offensive line is at its best (relatively) as road graders in the run game. They're in the 79th percentile for line yards produced, per Game on Paper, but they're dead last among FBS teams in sacks allowed. They've given up 26 in 6 games.
So, you go on the road to face a defense that is plenty challenging, and you'd like to give your quarterback advantageous situations to operate from. You don't want Sellers to be off-schedule and have to beat OU as a dropback guy. He's not there yet, and you're opening the door to turnovers doing that. Sellers has been a turnover machine this season. I'd think South Carolina would try to give him quick throws to build some rhythm, but really lean on the run game to try and shorten the clock and win field position.
Payton Guthrie - What will South Carolina do on defense to press its advantage over the Sooners?
Derek Peterson - They sacked Jalen Milroe 4 times, but they blitzed him on nearly 48% of his overall dropbacks. I think you'll see the same here. Oklahoma has given up 20 sacks in 6 games. I don't have to tell you about the struggles the mash unit up front has dealt with. South Carolina has Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart to throw at OU off the edge — two really good pass-rushers. Kennard is actually fourth nationally right now with 7.5 sacks. Stewart is a freak athlete. Combined, they have 38 quarterback pressures so far.
With Oklahoma's injury situation, there's not really any reason to be concerned about the receivers, so you try to overwhelm the Oklahoma offensive line and force Michael Hawkins to play behind the chains. South Carolina has 8 interceptions this season. I think their best path to victory here is to be boring on offense and pounce on the mistakes the OU offense will inevitably make.
Payton Guthrie - What South Carolina players should OU fans be on the lookout for a breakout game?
Derek Peterson - It's Stewart. I've seen him contort his body in some crazy ways this season to beat tackles off the edge. There have been a handful of plays where he's beaten his man so quickly you can almost see him buffering trying to process what he's supposed to do next. The explosiveness and the twitchiness are remarkable. He had 2.5 sacks in his first 2 games and only has 1 since. He had a bad game against Alabama, so I wonder if there's a bounceback performance in Norman against Oklahoma's line.
Payton Guthrie - Score Prediction?
Derek Peterson - I took South Carolina +3 earlier in the week as I think they have a strong chance of winning outright. Oklahoma just has so many offensive issues right now. Maybe getting smacked around by Texas was the kick to the behind everyone needed, in which case I'll look a little foolish here. It'll be close; I just don't trust the Sooners.
I'll say South Carolina 23, Oklahoma 20
What are your score predictions? Post them in the comments.