Five Questions: Oklahoma vs. Houston
Welcome to Five Questions, a weekly article featuring insights from experts on the Oklahoma Sooners’ upcoming opponents. For week two, Payton Guthrie talked with Steve Helwick, writer for Underdog Dynasty, about what to expect from the Houston Cougars against the Oklahoma Sooners in the second week of the college football season.
FIVE QUESTIONS: OKLAHOMA VS. Houston
Payton Guthrie - What is your expectation for the Houston Cougar football season and how has the result in week 1 impacted that outlook?
Steve Helwick - Going into the season, I expected Houston to finish with somewhere from 4 to 5 wins, which is a similar result to 2023. The Cougars finished 4-8 last year and looked okay in most first halves against Big 12 competition, but the wheels consistently fell off in the third and fourth quarters as depth proved to be the prevailing factor. They wound up winning just two Big 12 games vs. West Virginia and Baylor, and both transpired in walk-off fashion, where failure to execute the play would have resulted in a loss.
Qualifying for a bowl in year two of Big 12 play under a new head coaching staff would be a significant accomplishment, especially with a retooled roster. But the odds of attaining that feat took a massive hint Saturday when the Cougars were steamrolled at home by UNLV, and the separation seemed larger than the 27-7 result on the scoreboard suggested. Houston only crossed the UNLV 44-yard line once before its final scoring possession with the backups in, and they were 60 seconds away from suffering a shutout. If the Cougars want to exceed last year's win total, the offensive line issues must be addressed immediately. Quarterback Donovan Smith had to hurry on seemingly every dropback, and he finished 15-of-30 for 135 yards and two picks — unable to buy time to survey downfield.
Payton Guthrie - What will Houston try to do on offense against the OU defense and a talented front seven?
Steve Helwick - The short answer is, I'm not really sure how they'll approach this game. Willie Fritz talked about flushing the UNLV game down the toilet, and I think the offensive strategy from that game could be flushed too because nothing worked for the three-and-a-half quarters with the starters in. Fritz teams were renowned for pounding the rock and heavily relying on the running backs at Tulane, and that strategy worked as Tyjae Spears (2022) and Makhi Hughes (2023) both cracked the top 10 in the nation in rushing for 11+ win teams.
But Houston shockingly didn't utilize its backfield against Tulane, and the offense mirrored more of an air raid approach from the Dana Holgorsen era. True sophomore Parker Jenkins, the No. 1 running back after a promising freshman campaign, only toted the rock twice for 17 yards. He didn't field a single carry in the second half, so I think Houston learns from its passing-oriented strategy and feeds Jenkins more often to start the Oklahoma game. As far as passing, Houston can only do what Oklahoma allows. If the Sooners' pressure arrives too quickly and aggressively, the Cougars might be limited to quick screen passes in the flats just like they were last week. But if Donovan Smith is granted more time, then routes can develop. The Cougars are pretty deep in the receiving corps with Joseph Manjack IV and former Oklahoma State transfer Stephon Johnson serving as the top targets, so better o-line play to allow these receivers to flourish is the biggest x-factor going forward.
Payton Guthrie - How will Houston try to defend against the Oklahoma offense? Does the lack of an OL push against Temple give Houston a starting point?
Steve Helwick - Houston's defense didn't have the worst game against UNLV, but things are understandably difficult when the offense punts on seven of its first eight full possessions and the Rebels get an average starting field position of their own 46. Thus, Houston's best defense Saturday will be their offense. Sustaining drives and forcing Oklahoma deep into its own territory give the Cougars breathing room to make things work. Oklahoma will provide a different look, as UNLV brought out a slippery mobile quarterback with back-to-back 1,200-yard rushing seasons in the FCS in Matthew Sluka. He extended plays tremendously well, making things more difficult for the pass rush and forcing Houston's linebackers to play contain. Playing quarterback contain shouldn't be as necessary against Jackson Arnold and Oklahoma, so the Cougars should be more aggressive in rushing the quarterback, seeing if they can force Arnold into some difficult throws. I'd say the secondary is the strongest position group on Houston's roster — led by former Sooner cornerback Latrell McCutchin and a healthy mix of experienced players, both returning and transfers — so if there's somewhere the Cougars can gain any advantage, it's that group pitted against a shorthanded receiving corps.
Payton Guthrie - What Houston players do OU fans need to keep an eye out for during the game?
Steve Helwick - Offensively, Parker Jenkins and Joseph Manjack IV are the names that should draw attention. Jenkins didn't really receive an opportunity to show his merit last Saturday, and the Cougars likely make him more of a focal point after their offensive strategy went awry vs. UNLV. Houston didn't run much in 2023, but Jenkins had several promising outings against Big 12 competition, notably looking sharp early on against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Manjack is easily identifiable on the field as the only receiver who doesn't wear gloves in the year of 2024. He's as tough as they come at the position, and he's a reliable possession receiver with a strong set of hands. While he's still waiting for his first collegiate 100-yard game, Manjack consistently makes smart plays and finds holes in zone coverage, ensuring he gets every yard the defense allows.
Defensively, AJ Haulcy is one of the players with All-Big 12 potential on the unit. Haulcy once totaled 24 tackles in a single game (the most single-game tackles by any FBS player since Kenneth Murray's 28), and he's a stalwart in zone coverage. He notched a well-timed pick in the end zone last week, returning it 48 yards, and he broke up an additional pass. Haulcy feels like an omnipresent force at times, and he's somebody Jackson Arnold must be aware of every time he takes a deep shot. Another notable name on defense is one familiar to Sooner fans, and that's inside linebacker Jamal Morris. Morris tied for the team-high in seven tackles in Week 1, and he's the team's premier run stopper, hoping to limit Oklahoma from another night of averaging over six yards per carry.
Payton Guthrie - Score Prediction?
Steve Helwick - It's hard to be optimistic about any team that's a 29-point underdog, and this matchup comes with unfortunate timing for Houston, transpiring right after disaster struck in one of its most winnable games of the season. Oklahoma cruises to a 41-14 victory, showing tremendous offensive improvement in areas it struggled with last week. The Cougars offense also looks a bit better, albeit against tougher competition, but it won't be enough to keep this game tightly contested.
What are your score predictions? Post them in the comments.