Blatant Homerism: What's the game plan?
Through two games, the Oklahoma Sooners have converted just five of 26 third-down opportunities. That’s very bad. Their conversion rate of 19.2% ranks 132nd out of 134 teams in the country.
Forget sustaining drives. OU’s offensive possessions have consisted of three snaps and a punt on the regular. Even more worrisome, that poor conversion rate has come against some Temple and Houston, two of the weakest opponents on the schedule this season.
In fact, though, the Sooners don’t seem to have a problem with third downs so much as a problem with first and second downs. Against UH last weekend, six of OU’s 14 conversion attempts covered 10 or more yards. The average distance to go for the Sooners on third down versus the Cougars: more than eight yards. That happens when you’re gaining five yards per play on offense, which ranks 108th nationally.
OU wasn’t immune to clunky offensive performances in the 2023 season. In game two, for instance, the Sooners picked up 4.9 yards per snap in a 28-11 win over SMU. A month later, OU generated just 5.3 yards per play in a 31-29 win over Central Florida. The Sooners had third-down conversion rates of 46.7% and 43.8% in the contests, though.
What has changed this year? The Sooners have one of the lowest Offensive Success Rates in the country at 32%, which ranks 129th overall.
In football, one poor outcome tends to beget another. A short gain on first down limits makes second down harder. A short gain on third down makes it harder to get a new first down. And on and on. (The converse is true as well: Good outcomes foster more.)
When your team is only gaining adequate yardage on one in three offensive plays, it creates the kinds of negative feedback loops the Sooners fell into repeatedly versus the Cougars. One situation in the second quarter illustrated how execution issues and tactics converged to keep OU off-schedule throughout the game.
Facing second down with 10 yards to go, OU lines up on the left hash in 11 personnel with tight end Bauer Sharp attached as a wing and two receivers split wide to the field side of the formation. On the snap, Arnold fakes a handoff, looks downfield to his right and essentially works himself into a four-yard sack by bailing on a clean pocket. That’s the execution part.
However, in this case, the Cougars are offering receiver Deion Burks ample cushion in the slot by playing two high safeties and seven defenders close to the run box. Given the circumstances, firing a quick throw to No. 6 likely picks up enough yardage at minimum for a manageable third down. Instead, OU ends up with third-and-a-mile from outside of field goal range.
From an execution standpoint, you could blame the outcome of this particular play on Arnold’s skittishness in the pocket. Responsibility for fixing that lies with the QB and the coaches in charge of his development and preparation. However, unless Arnold missed a signal, we can only assume the decision to ignore the easy pitch and catch came from offensive coordinator Seth Littrell. That goes to tactics, and it seems to be a common theme through two games.
From the outside looking in, this raises a rather important question: Why are Littrell – and the rest of OU’s coaches – making these decisions? If coaches treat games like scrimmages to stress test their teams, that affects the decisions they ultimately make on Saturdays. They’re less likely to try to manage drives with situation-specific play calls, for example.
The proof will show up on the field soon enough if Brent Venables and his staff have spent more time in the last two weeks preparing for the entire season than getting ready for Temple and UH. Importantly, pay attention to how the offense approaches situations – the last two weeks have been weird.
Need a little zen? Try this Simpsons-presidential debate mashup:
I better go superviral for this... pic.twitter.com/00Laf5QUrx
— Fearghas Kelly (@FearghasKelly) September 11, 2024
A final thought on Houston.
Pound for pound, I consider Willie Fritz to be one of best coaches in college football – possibly the best. He and his coaching staff scout opponents extremely well, and they put together strong game plans for the Sooners on both sides of the ball. Also, it looks like they have assembled a tough group of veterans on defense led by edge Keith Cooper, a senior who accompanied the staff in their move from Tulane.
The amount of roster turnover on the squad left me feeling bearish on the Cougs prior to the season, but keep an eye on them playing spoiler in the Big 12 this year. Don’t be shocked if UH is competing at the top of the league soon, either.
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