Knee-jerk thoughts about Brent Venables' contract extension
Friday’s news that Oklahoma was awarding Brent Venables with a contract extension generated bewilderment from the college football commentariat. Why now for someone who is 16-10 in two seasons as head coach of the Sooners? Seems like a fair question, especially given that nothing indicates OU had any competitors for his services.
I don’t have any inside information about the thinking among the upper reaches of OU’s administration, so I’m just speculating. But I’ll offer a few thoughts.
1. Venables’ first deal with OU starting in 2022 was fully guaranteed for six years and a total of $43.5 million, running through Jan. 31, 2028. In other words, he had four years and about $29 million left on that contract. As of last year, that would have put his annual compensation at ninth in the SEC.
The details of Venables’ extension remain fuzzy, but the latest reporting shows OU is slated to pay its head coach a total of $51.6 million over the next six years. At an average of about $8.2 million, his annual compensation would still rank ninth in the SEC. The annual increase of roughly $925,000 per year from Venables’ old contract works out to a raise of a little under 15%.
Notably, I haven’t seen any reporting regarding terms of the new deal’s buyout. If Venables no longer has a fully guaranteed contract, that might change how we should view this deal.
2. Since 2021, the median annual salary of the SEC coaching fraternity has climbed 60%. Venables’ compensation doesn’t seem to be out of step with the economics of the market. Again, the flexibility afforded by the buyout number means a lot, though.
For the sake of comparison, Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz inked an extension in January valued at $46 million over five years. It represented a raise of about 50% from his annual average compensation under the old contract. He will receive $18 million guaranteed in the first two years of the new contract, while Mizzou would be on the hook for 75% of the money remaining in the subsequent years if the Tigers fire Drinkwitz. (If he got canned after 2025, for example, Mizzou would owe him $21 million.)
3. Let’s say OU decided to fire Venables after 2025. Under the old contract, he would be owed about $15 million. If his new contract is also fully guaranteed, he would be owed roughly $34 million in dead money in that scenario, a difference of $19 million.
That would be a hefty increase in the buyout number, inflation or not. (Reminder: We don’t know what the buyout actually is.) On the flip side, you could also say the current market dynamics would make a $15 million buyout exceedingly cheap.
Would that be right-sizing or overcorrecting? Hell if I know.
3. A few weeks ago, I wrote about how my view of Venables’s project has changed since he was hired as head coach. The cracks that were emerging at OU under Lincoln Riley became painfully obvious following his unexpected departure in late 2021. Hiring a new coach gave OU a chance to reshape the enterprise from top to bottom in advance of the move to the SEC.
Since then, the trajectory in terms of on-field performance trended in the right direction from 2022 to 2023. Recruiting has picked up under the new coaching regime. Meanwhile, Venables and his cabinet have built up an organization that fits with the new landscape of college football.
The indicators for the future look positive right now. Here’s where it gets tricky, however.
4. Progress isn’t linear and all that. The 2024 season has the potential to be a rocky one for OU.
The Sooners are shifting to a conference in which they will face six teams this season that recruit in the top 20 in the nation. (Another opponent, Missouri, ranks 21st.) Preseason point spreads already peg them as underdogs in five games and small favorites in two others. They’re playing that schedule with a green quarterback and a revamped offensive line that was neglected by the last head coach for too long.
Add it all up, and the win-loss record might not look too pretty at the end of the year. Extending Venables now puts a lid on any talk about him being on the hot seat if that comes to pass. It would give recruits assurances that OU’s administration is backing the head coach for the foreseeable future. The same goes for coveted players on OU’s roster who could be targeted as transfers by other coaching staffs.
5. Of course, the objective is ultimately to win. There’s a cart-before-the-horse risk to planning around recruiting. What if Venables proves to be in over his head? Paying a lot of money to solidify recruiting for an outclassed coach is hustling backwards. The players he recruits can all become free agents whenever they want anyway.
6. The major takeaways:
Giving Venables a contract extension now confirms that the shot-callers believe he is repairing what was damaged in the program.
His job was never going to be on the line this year, and an extension gives the coaching staff more ammo if they’re recruiting in year one of a six-year deal, as opposed to year three.
Yes, anxiety over recruiting has helped turn college football coaching into a total racket.
If you’re looking for a true referendum on Venables’ tenure, we can probably revisit this discussion after the 2025 season.