Oklahoma's personnel management and the NFL Draft: Part two
In the first article of this two-part series, we looked back at the Sooners’ recent draft history and the inflow and outflow of players in the Oklahoma program. Now let’s consider some potential conclusions that can be drawn from the data.
So what issues precipitated OU’s substandard showing in this year’s draft? A few stand out from the data, and they tell us a lot about the last coaching regime.
In the years in which players eligible for the 2024 draft were entering college, OU’s recruiting classes had high rates of attrition.
Schools can’t claim draft picks who don’t finish there in the first place. When the majority of players who sign with a college team out of high school are transferring out, it reduces the pool of potential selections substantially. That was the case for the Sooners with the ‘18-’21 recruiting vintages.
Given that the NCAA relaxed restrictions on player movement in recent years, we should expect some uptick in the rate of players transferring at most schools – both into and out of the programs. Moreover, when a head coach leaves a program, as Riley did at the end of the ‘21 season, it stands to reason the players he recruited will look to move elsewhere. Quarterback Caleb Williams, defensive back Latrell McCutchin and receiver Mario Williams from the ‘21 class followed Riley to USC immediately after that season ended, for example.
But no matter the reasons why so many players from those recruiting classes left OU, the significant attrition wiped out a major chunk of possible OU-grown picks. Additionally, it left Venables and the coaching staff scouring the transfer market for players to backfill the holes in the team’s roster. In that situation, coaches can’t necessarily be choosy about who plugs the gaps.
Riley’s recruiting evaluations and player development were suspect.
High attrition generally reflects poorly on a coach’s ability to evaluate recruits. However, you could make the case that Riley’s departure makes for a major confounding factor.
It becomes harder to defend evaluation and development under Riley’s watch when you consider what ended up happening to so many recruits from the period in question. I’ve written previously about the number of players recruited by Riley who left OU and ended up at Group of Five and FCS programs. The paucity of draft picks further underscores the questions about his capacity for identifying talented players out of high school, let alone guiding them through the process of developing into NFL-caliber players.
To be fair, a total of five players recruited to OU out of high school by Riley will be on the OU roster this fall:
DB Billy Bowman
DL Ethan Downs
WR Jalil Farooq
LB Danny Stutsman
DB Woodi Washington
It seems reasonable to expect at least two or three from this group will end up getting selected in the draft next year. All five getting picked shouldn’t shock anyone.
Perhaps we can re-evalute Riley’s evaluation skills in that event.
The Riley era exacerbated a glaring weakness in OU’s NFL pipeline.
Looking at the last 10 years of draft picks from OU, the Sooners were clearly falling behind in sending defensive players to the show. (And, yes, anyone who watched the team during that time already realizes this.)
From 2015 to 2024, a total of 50 OU players were selected in the draft. Of those 50 picks, 31 played on the offensive side of the ball. Eighteen were defenders, while one OU kicker was selected.
The disparity gets even more pronounced when you factor in when players were selected. Six offensive players went in the first round during that stretch, while only one defensive player got picked on the first day of the draft. Picks on the second day, which covers the second and third rounds, included 10 on offense and six on defense. Sixteen offensive players went on day three, compared with 11 on defense.
The vanishing pro talent on defense – either as raw potential or finished products – didn’t start with Riley. Ex-defensive coordinator Bob Stoops himself was struggling to identify and develop NFL-level players on D.
If Venables can reinvigorate the flow of defensive prospects from OU to the NFL, the other challenges he’s now facing should work themselves out.