Blatant Homerism: Texas ain't played nobody
The Texas Longhorns are a very good college football team. Coach Steve Sarkisian and his staff have their squad firing on all cylinders. The Horns have soundly defeated their first five opponents this season, and they are rightfully expected to do so when they take on the Oklahoma Sooners in the Red River game at the Cotton Bowl on October 12.
However, let’s be real about one thing: Texas ain’t played nobody.
Yes, Texas did win one of the marquee non-conference games of this season when the Longhorns took down defending national champion Michigan at the Big House in decisive fashion. But let’s not mistake the Wolverines of 2024, who currently rank 15th overall in SP+ and 12th in FEI, for those of the previous few seasons. When all is said and done this season, we won’t hold this version of Michigan in particularly high regard – it seems telling that the Wolverines are underdogs this weekend in their first game away from Ann Arbor at Washington.
UT’s other non-conference opponents (SP+ ranking, FEI ranking):
Colorado State (106, 112)
Texas-San Antonio (100, 110)
Louisiana-Monroe (120, 104)
The Horns also played their only SEC game so far against the conference’s weakest team, Mississippi State (76, 86).
Notably, Texas has gone up against a particularly weak collection of offenses this season. UT’s five opponents have an average Offensive SP+ ranking of 93rd, the best being Michigan at 63rd nationally. (Also, keep in mind that the Wolverines have since benched quarterback Davis Warren in favor of Alex Orji and shelved the passing game they were using versus UT.)
That should give you good reason to be circumspect about buying into the Texas defense, which ranks eighth nationally in Defensive SP+ and seventh in FEI Defense. Both metrics adjust for the quality of a team’s opponents, so there’s no questioning that the Horns D has performed exceedingly well in its first five games of the year. We’ll see what happens when UT’s runs into offenses with more firepower.
Unfortunately for the Sooners, OU is not one of those teams.
Speaking of which, how can OU hope to generate more production from its offense in the next seven games?
The Sooners didn’t show much against Auburn to suggest the change at quarterback will produce an offensive explosion. They have slightly more capacity for big plays, owing to freshman QB Michael Hawkins’ speed and its impact on defensive strategy. Yet, OU’s paltry success rate of 32% versus the Tigers indicates the Sooners still can’t consistently put together offensive drives.
Taking the governor off Hawkins in the throwing game might help. Carter Bryant pointed out one particular instance in the Auburn game in which it seemed clear the coaching staff had drilled into the rookie’s head that he needed to play tight.
Bryant points out that in the image above, Hawkins has two potential throws beyond the first-down marker that appear to be open. On the field side of the formation to Hawkins right, JJ Hester is running a dig route. To the boundary, Brenen Thompson is running a slant.
These are throws Hawkins can make. Deliver the ball on time with some zip, and the Sooners are moving the sticks. On the other hand, each circled defender could pick off one of these passes if the ball comes out late. Rather than risking a turnover, Hawkins eventually opts to tuck it and run. The result: no first down, but also no turnover.
OU played it safe in a similar fashion for much of the game versus Auburn, enabling the Sooners to capitalize on their opportunities late. The coaches will probably need to let Hawkins rip it as the season wears on.
A few games I’ll have my eye on this weekend as the Sooners take a breather:
Missouri at Texas A&M – Little of what I’ve seen from the Tigers so far suggests Mizzou is a top 10-ish team.
Ole Miss at South Carolina – Similarly, let’s see what Ole Miss is really made of.
USC at Minnesota – Lincoln Riley’s teams often struggle against these kinds of teams, but the Trojans just rolled over one of said teams last week.
SMU at Louisville – As other contenders in the ACC fall by the wayside, this game could determine a participant in the conference title game.
Michigan at Washington – The line on this game swung away from Michigan by 14 points since the summer.