Projecting a Win Total for Oklahoma in 2016
The release of college football win totals signifies an annual milestone that reminds fans the offseason doesn't last forever. More importantly, degenerate gamblers get a lick to take their minds off the monotony of betting on regular season baseball.
The shops that have already set their totals are pegging OU at 10 wins, one of the higher numbers in the country.
I put together my own total for the Sooners this year based on how I would set the point spreads on every OU game. I've written about this process in the past. Essentially, I use the line on each game to come up with the likelihood of a straight-up win (translating into a "win share") using Phil Steele's percentages derived from actual results.
Again, these lines are derived from my own power ratings.
Notes:
*I'm projecting 9.8 wins for the Sooners in 2016, which is consistent with the sentiment coming from the oddsmakers. As such, I don't consider either side of 10 to be a compelling proposition.
*I don't feel too confident in the line for the Baylor game, given how the situation in Waco is trending. As of now, consider -9 a base case assuming that nothing more comes out that would lead to further player dismissals. (Yes, that's is a shaky assumption.)
*The frequency of lines in the range of six to 10 points illustrates the challenge facing OU this year. The biggest test might be staying focused for a slew of opponents dangerous enough to spring upsets, even if they're not quite of OU's caliber.
It's far from a one-game season, but it's also not an unmanageable slate.