Picks Trying Not to Suck: Week 3
A hot start to handicapping for BH in the 2015 season is screaming for a correction.
On to this week’s picks:
BLATANT HOMERISM--Week 3
(Last week: 4-1; Overall: 8-2)
Clemson at Louisville (+6)
I’ve had the Cardinals straight up in this game since before the season, so I’m not backing off now. The Tigers faced some lightweights in the first two weeks of the year, so I’m looking for a slow start as they acclimate to the step up in competition.
The pick: ‘Ville outright.
Western Kentucky at Indiana (-1.5)
A couple warning signs for the Hilltoppers. First, they’re plus-four in turnover margin through two games. Additionally, they scratched out a win against Vanderbilt despite being outgained by 150 yards and ringing up 11 first downs to the Commodores’ 20.
Last but not least, WKU’s run defense looked atrocious in the first two contests, surrendering 5.4 yards per rush. IU coach Kevin Wilson will pound the ball all day long if the Hilltoppers can’t get that fixed.
The pick: Hoosiers by 7.
Auburn (+7) at LSU
Auburn hasn’t exactly impressed through its first two games. That confirmed my skepticism about the Tigers as national championship contenders, but it didn’t alter my view of the squad as dramatically as this spread would imply.
Teams supposedly make the most improvement between their first and second games, which would be a plus for LSU. Like, whatever.
The pick: Take the points.
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame (+2.5)
The Yellow Jackets are beating the dog out of everybody. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish are getting beaten up.
ND’s mounting injuries probably mean Brian Kelly and Co. will be sitting out of the playoff this season. Tech won’t derail their hopes just yet, though. The Irish simply have too much talent and athleticism on defense, and Kelly’s teams have typically dominated triple-option offenses.
The pick: Home team outright.
Ole Miss at Alabama (-7)
I’m not thrilled that I have three of the week’s biggest games on this card, but that’s how the cookie crumbles.
The Rebels pasted a couple tomato cans in their first two contests. Obviously, you like to see teams come out sharp, but the two games don’t really offer much information as to what is going to happen at Bryant-Denney Stadium on Saturday -- which, by the way, will be Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly’s first road start in college.
Alabama has revenge on the brain and, apparently, an improved defense on the field. Ole Miss is going to struggle to move the ball and eventually succumb to the Tide in the second half.
The pick: Alabama by double digits.
THE SKINNY--Week 3
(Last week: 2-3; Overall: 5-5)
Texas Tech at Arkansas (-11.5)
Florida at Kentucky (+3)
Clemson at Louisville (+6)
Iowa State (+8) at Toledo
Stanford (+10) at USC