Picks Trying Not to Suck: Week 5
The regression to the mean continued last week in PTNTS land with both of our fearless handicappers taking it on the chin. Can't make an omelette without a little rain, I guess.
The Skinny
(Last Week: 1-4; Overall: 9-10)
USC (+6) at Arizona State - ASU is in a tough spot coming off tough games against Wisky and Stanford (with ND on deck). USC has been awful this season, but this line seems to be begging you to take the Sun Devils, so I'll take SC.
Pick: Trojans.
Florida at UK (+12.5) - Don't have enough confidence in Florida's O to take -12.5 on the road. Cats did decent job hanging with a much better offense in Louisville.
Pick: I'll take the home dog.
Wake at Clemson (-28) - Clemson will pull a Clemson at some point this year, but this isn't it. Wake is just too bad. Don't like laying 4 TDs, but the lack of better options has me relying on Dabo Swinney and the Tigers rolling up Wake.
Pick: Tigers by a ton.
Ole Miss at Bama (-14) - Yeah, Ole Miss is an up-and-comer, but I think the Rebels are in for a reality check. The 2013 Crimson Tide haven't exactly been what we've come to expect out of Nick Saban. That might bite the Tide down the line but not this weekend.
Pick: 'Bama blowout.
Arizona (+10) at Washington - I still need to see more from both teams before I'm ready to call them contenders in the Pac-12. I see a bit of value in Zona with the line pushed up 10.
Pick: Washington wins by a TD.
Blatant Homerism
(Last Week: 1-4; Overall: 12-8)
Ole Miss at Alabama (-14) - The Tide remain the best team in the country in my mind, but early returns suggest the gap with the rest of the field is smaller than initially thought. Going through the motions last week against Colorado State was to be expected, but if such a disinterested performance doesn't light a fire under their asses this week, take that as an ominous sign for the Tide.
Pick: 'Bama, 42-14.
Iowa State (+3) at Tulsa - An AQ team catching points versus a mediocre mid-major? The Cyclones aren't that bad. (Are they?)
Pick: Gimme them points.
Stanford at Washington State (+10) - Interesting spot for the Cardinal, who travel to Pullman with a revenge game on deck next week with Washington. Wazzu has improved from last year - granted, not saying much - and the Cougars actually played Stanford tough then.
Pick: Cougs keep it close.
Miami at South Florida (+18.5) - Who does this game mean more to? Who might be a little overvalued after a fortunate win over Florida? Who has to travel for a noon kickoff?
Pick: Miami by 16.
USC (+6) at Arizona State - Clancy "Clubber" Pendergast is the story here. He has helped key a turnaround for USC's defense. Last year his D at Cal did a nice job holding the Sun Devils in check, too.
Pick: Trojans straight up.